The total grain production in the 2023 season in Western Australia of 14.5 million tonnes was nearly 50 per cent lower than the record years of 2022 and 2021.
For many growers, total rainfall received in 2023 was well down on 2019 rainfall, when 11.3mt were produced on a similar area of crop sown.
In the 2023 grain season wrap up, released this week by the Grain Industry Association of WA (GIWA), it said subtle improvements in production systems were tending to buffer the downside of these poor years and push grain yields well beyond previous records in good seasons.
The five-year average (2019-23) WA grain production is 18mt, and the previous five-year average (2014-18) is 3mt less at 15.2 million tonnes.
GIWA said while there was more crop area being sown than 10 years ago, the increased variability of rainfall events has forced growers to change their production systems to adapt to the changing weather patterns, and this is clearly showing up in the production figures.
"Grain production in Western Australia is still on a linear trajectory upwards despite increased variability in a drying, warming climate," GIWA said.
"Livestock production has flat lined over the same period.
"The contrast between 2022 and 2023 could not have been starker.
"In 2022 about 3pc of wheat deliveries were high protein that made hard grades of one sort or another, whereas in 2023 47 per cent made hard - a reflection of the tough growing conditions and blunt finish."
GIWA said in years like this they would normally expect a high proportion of cereal production to fall out of the higher grades due to screenings, although in 2023 only 18 per cent of wheat fell into utility or feed grades due to high screenings.
While seed size was generally small, screenings didn't blow out as much as was expected.
As a result, overall grain quality was very good and enabled growers to make up some ground in dollar returns in a lower production year.
Crop area in recent years has been around nine million hectares.
There was just under 8.5 million hectares of crop sown in 2023, down from 2022 due to the lack of sub-soil moisture in many regions heading into the season, a late break and a below average outlook for rainfall.
"The ongoing dramas with the live sheep export trade are certainly going to have an influence on driving crop area up in 2024 in the regions where sheep are still prevalent," GIWA said.
"Less sheep will require less pasture, with this pasture area being substituted for crops.
"If the very dry and hot summer continues, a reduction in crop area will be seen in the lower rainfall areas of the State as more country is turned over to fallow, reducing the crop area in these regions where most of the reduction in area from 2022 to 2023 occurred.
"Many growers in the north and eastern parts of the State lost some of the gains in 2023 that were made in the 2021 and 2022 growing seasons, and budgets for them are tight heading into 2024.
"Unless autumn rainfall is significant, a contraction back to wheat from crops such as canola which have higher input costs is likely right across the State."
GIWA said good autumn rains were needed to minimise the risk of not achieving breakeven canola yields.
Canola area was just under 1.9 million hectares in 2023, down 14pc on the area planted in 2022.
GIWA said canola has been the "go to" crop in recent years, although with growers maintaining a more risk adverse approach heading into 2024, it is unlikely the canola area will go up unless there is good sub-soil moisture and an early general break to the season.
Barley performed well in 2023, whereas the quick finish to the season did not allow the wheat crops to fill their potential.
The newer barley varieties have more robust disease packages and require less reliance on fungicides, particularly in the higher rainfall regions, which was in part driving down area planted.
"This looks to have stabilised, and barley is back in favour in most of the southern regions of the State," GIWA said.
"There are unlikely to be wholescale changes to cropping plans in 2024, although if the dry, hot conditions continue, area planted and input costs will be pared back.
"Sub-soil moisture levels are very low in most regions, and there have been record maximum temperatures in January and the start of February that have burnt off the few weeds that did germinate in some of the areas that had the storms in January.
"There are no summer weeds worth speaking of and no reason to get out in the paddocks other than for deep ripping and lime spreading."
GIWA said the plans for most growers was "more of the same" as most do not change dramatically from year to year.
It said the next two and a half months would determine the change in canola area and from then on, the wheat/barley split.
"This will be largely dependent on the timing of the break to the season and how much autumn rain we receive," it said.
"For the higher rainfall areas, there will be more of an enterprise shift rather than a significant change in area cropped.
"There may be a slight increase in cropped areas due to the current low sheep prices driving turnoff if a home can be found for the excess livestock."
GIWA said barley was back in favour due to its relative grain yield performance compared to wheat recently, and the re-opening of the China export market.
It said for the low rainfall areas, there will certainly be more fallow on the heavy country, unless there was significant autumn rain to top up the soil moisture profiles.
"The canola area could swing with a drop back to around 1.5m hectares from 1.87m hectares in 2023 if there is a late break, to more than 2m hectares if conditions are favourable at optimum planting times.
"Although the continuing slide in canola prices will put a cap on the area sown to some degree, and even with good early rains it is unlikely we will see a return to the record areas planted in 2022."
The predictions are the lupin area is unlikely to increase significantly in 2024, even at the current high prices.
Lupin area in 2023 was down to about 4.9 per cent of the total crop area sown in WA.
The majority of the lupin area is no longer within the Geraldton port zone.
Last year, the area in the Geraldton port zone sown to lupins dropped from being 32pc of WA's total lupin area to 25pc due to the very dry conditions at seeding time.
GIWA predicts while this will likely go back up with a good start to the season, that isn't going to change the overall picture much because in the remainder of WA, lupins were only a small percentage of the rotation on soil types that suit them, and plantings are influenced by reasons other than price.
Oats are still a minor crop and accounted for only 2.3 per cent of the cropped area in 2023.
"Some growers who currently grow oats may increase the area sown due to the current high prices offered," GIWA said.
"Although even with the sustained increasing demand for milling grade oats, the grain yield differential with other cereals and risk of hitting milling grade will not see a big swing into oats for grain.
"The oat grain/hay swap area is also unlikely to alter greatly as many growers exited the hay game recently when markets collapsed and are unlikely to return overnight.
"The outlook for a change in pulse area is subdued again for another year.
"The combined total of all field pea, faba bean, lentil and chickpea hectares in Western Australia last year was less than 1pc of the total crop area and while growers continue to dabble, erratic prices and limited marketing options continue to be more of a deterrent than the obvious benefits to the rotation."
