There is more than double the money in mutton over east compared to WA, with livestock industry representatives labelling the price difference as alarming.
As of the week ending April 12, the WA mutton saleyard indicator is sitting at about 80 cents per kilogram carcase weight (c/kg cwt), which is a 71 per cent discount to the national mutton indicator of 266c/kg cwt.
These are the lowest returns for mutton in the country - falling behind Queensland 182c/kg cwt, South Australia 191c/kg cwt, Tasmania 205c/kg cwt, Victoria 284c/kg cwt and New South Wales 297c/kg cwt.
It is in stark contrast to April-July 2023 when the market peaked at 306c/kg cwt.
For many WA producers the price is not worth sending their sheep to saleyards, particularly when the cost of freight and yarding fees are factored in.
However, they are left with few alternatives, as dry seasonal conditions persist and feed and water supplies run short.
This, coupled with a reduced demand for processing mutton locally, is believed to have largely influenced the market.
Industry sources have reported there is also a significant disparity when looking at over the hooks pricing for mutton.
Meat & Livestock Australia senior market information analyst Erin Lukey said decent rainfall in NSW, Victoria and South Australia over the past few weeks, had lifted confidence in the east coast.
She said the last time WA producers received high returns for mutton was in July last year, before the market took a sharp decline.
Unlike over east, she said prices had not picked up over the past six months, levelling out at around 80-100c/kg cwt.
In December, the WA mutton price fell to 65c/kg cwt - its lowest point since November 2006, when prices dropped to 55c/kg cwt.
"WA mutton prices have not reached above a dollar per kilogram since January," Ms Lukey said.
"However, at the same time, yardings at Katanning saleyards and Muchea Livestock Centre have increased significantly.
"When prices reached over 300c/kg cwt in July last year, WA was yarding between 1000 and 6000-head.
"Now we are seeing increased offloading of stock by producers, with weekly average yardings of just under 10,000-head, and a peak of 14,736 in March.
"Given it hasn't rained for a while, people would be making a decision as to whether or not they should hold onto numbers."
Some Eastern States' processors have seen opportunity across the border, with an increased number of sheep being trucked over east in 2024.
They said the east coast mutton market was "very competitive" and still more than that of WA, even with transport costs, which are north of $30 per head.
Elders State livestock and wool manager Dean Hubbard
Elders State livestock and wool manager Dean Hubbard said the price difference for mutton in WA compared to the Eastern States was quite alarming.
He said it raised questions when more than one Eastern States processor could purchase large numbers of mutton and absorb significant transport costs, while remaining cost-effective to purchasing similar sheep within their local market.
Mr Hubbard said the extended dry seasonal conditions being experienced in WA, coupled with a growing lack of feed and water, and a deficiency in local mutton processing demand was significantly influencing the market at present.
"Interestingly and by comparison, Victoria, which has a flock size not too dissimilar to our own, has 19 processors processing 11 million sheep and lamb," Mr Hubbard said.
"Meanwhile, WA has six processors processing circa 3.8m sheep and lamb - that's the difference.
"Separately, there are about four to five live sheep export shipments that haven't occurred, which means there is now a large supply of sheep in the system that we thought would have already left WA."
Nutrien Livestock stud and commercial sheep manager Tom Bowen
Nutrien Livestock stud and commercial sheep manager Tom Bowen said, unlike other States, WA relied on several markets to move livestock including processors, live export and other graziers.
Mr Bowen said when the northern moratorium was in place and live exports by sea were not active for three months of the year, sheep numbers built up, resulting in backlogs.
"Without those market alternatives, we are never able to get ahead," Mr Bowen said.
"At the moment the dry conditions and lack of water is also having an impact on the industry.
"No one is hanging onto sheep - they have no choice but to put them onto the market and sell them for what they can.
"They know if conditions don't change for another six weeks it is going to be a late start to the season and difficult all the way through."
Mr Bowen said all of these factors were hitting prices hard.
He said the lack of processing facilities in WA - coupled with tough seasonal conditions - painted a grim picture.
"Over east, there is a greater local consumption for sheepmeat, I understand that," Mr Bowen said.
"But with all of those forces, local farmers aren't confident enough to enter the livestock market at the moment, with no end user available - whether that be abattoir, live export or other graziers."
Thomas Foods International national smallstock manager Paul Leonard
Based in South Australia, Thomas Foods International (TFI) has been a big buyer of WA sheep over the past three to four months.
TFI national smallstock manager Paul Leonard said since the first week of January, the meat processing giant had trucked about 150,000-head across the border.
This included in excess of 100,000-head of mutton, 20,000 grainfed lambs, which kill space could not be secured for locally, and 20,000 store lambs.
Mr Leonard said the company's involvement had been opportunistic, after it was approached by WA agents, who were finding it difficult to secure kill space locally.
Initial plans were to buy 10,000 to 15,000-head, however demand continued to grow.
"I have been buying sheep in WA most weeks, except for a three-week gap last month," Mr Leonard said.
"This week was my last run, it is that time of year - conditions are dry and most of the ewes will be scanned in lamb from now onwards.
"From my understanding, we have cleaned up a significant excess of stock that has been overhanging for the past four to five months.
"If we didn't do so, the carryover would have placed further downward pressure on what is already a depressed market in WA."
Mr Leonard said the Eastern States' mutton market was very competitive and still more than that of WA, even with the cost of freight which is north of $30 per head.
"I think it will go from a significant oversupply to a significant under supply because of the amount of stock that has gone out of WA through seasonality and lack of competitive markets," he said.
"Some growers have moved out of sheep entirely and stepped into other areas of farming, as a result of this I think the WA flock will severely diminish."
As such, Mr Leonard believed the mutton and lamb market could be very different next year, compared to what it is now.
But he said growers also needed the season to break heading into spring or next autumn for that to happen.
"Times have been tough for WA growers, there's been an oversupply in the market, bad season, confidence lost in the live export phase-out and fairly low returns.
"Those factors have come together at once to create what has been a very difficult period of six to eight months.
"I think those issues need to be looked at over four or five years, not six months."
Mr Leonard added, a positive was that lambs were cyclical.
"A brand new lamb year is approaching," he said.
"If growers can hold on and catch a seasonal break, the market could turn for them."
Mr Leonard said TFI had purchased grainfed and store lambs in recognition and support of local livestock agents.
He said agents had appreciated help to alleviate the oversupply, while TFI appreciated the opportunity.
