Most growers either started last week or will do so this week when it comes to their 2024 seeding programs, suggests the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA).
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The prediction was made in GIWA's April 2024 crop outlook released on Friday.
It said apart from some canola and oats in the Hyden area sown into moisture and isolated pockets of canola further north, it was all dry sowing.
With no rain on the horizon, it looks like at least a couple more weeks of dry sowing is ahead.
GIWA said this was not unusual for WA and not necessarily a precursor to a poor year, "although the extremely dry soil profiles are a concern and have put a dampener on the start to the 2024 growing season".
"The dry hot summer is lingering, and the reprieve in March with storms across areas of the eastern grainbelt raised hopes for a change in weather patterns.
"However, with current climate outlooks forecasting more of the same for the time being, these hopes have evaporated.
"Whilst things can change quickly at this time of the year, growers are taking a cautious approach with cropping plans."
Dry sowing of canola, lupins and vetch is underway in many regions of WA, with growers planning to swap to dry sowing cereals when they reach around 50 per cent or less of their planned canola hectares sown.
GIWA said this was a subtle change from recent dry sowing strategies, where a larger percentage of the planned canola crop would be sown dry before switching to cereals.
With virtually no sub-soil moisture across the grainbelt, except for the central eastern fringes, the latest report said growers were holding back on committing larger areas of canola due to the risk associated with a late break to the season.
"The cereal area was expected to increase from 2023 due to a reduction in sheep numbers and percentage of ewes mated," GIWA said.
"The anticipated pasture-to-crop swap of around 10 per cent is likely to be less now as growers are still holding stock that was earmarked to be turned off.
"The swap from pasture to crop will be offset largely by a decrease in total crop area if the dry conditions continue into May."
GIWA expects there will be an increase in both lupin and oat area from 2023, due to the run down in stocks and current higher prices on offer.
The reduced area of plantings in 2023 and increased domestic demand for these grains as of livestock feed has pushed prices up to decile eight to nine levels for both crops. It remains to be seen if these higher prices hold through to harvest.
GIWA said the wheat and barley areas could change significantly across the regions as the break to the season lingers and it was too early to be firm on crop area split of the two.
It said there could also be a wide swing in variance with crop area as growers in the northern and eastern regions of WA may opt for fallow over crop as the break to the season pushes back.
"Whilst long-term weather forecasts are not particularly reliable this time of the year, there is nothing positive on the horizon and this is playing on growers' minds with most taking a cautious approach to the season ahead," GIWA said.
