DPIRD releases analysis on sheep flock

Western Australian sheep producers have been facing a processor backlog and the uncertainty presented by the potential loss of the live sheep export trade for more than 12 months and have been speaking out about their concerns for their industry.

Add to this the subsequent low prices and now the seasonal conditions they are experiencing and their concerns are very much a reality, with no feed and water added to the pressures.

The overarching concern is there will be a mass exodus of sheep producers, leading to a huge reduction in the WA flock and this has been a cause for concern for industry members.

On the back of this, the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) WA, released an analysis paper on Monday, 'The impact of changing joining rates on the Western Australian sheep flock'.

"Given the poor seasonal conditions and low prices experienced in 2023-24, the Western Australian sheep industry is experiencing a period of very poor industry sentiment often compared to that seen in the 1990s following the collapse of the wool reserve price scheme," DPIRD said.

"These difficult times mean producers have had to make production decisions for their businesses which may have flow-on effects for the entire State flock.

"One commonly discussed option by industry and consultants was to join less ewes to reduce the feed burden onfarm and help mitigate losses due to low prices.

"This computer modelling aimed to investigate the impact of reduced joining rates on the WA flock over three years.

"The results ranged from a 12 per cent flock reduction from 11.96 million sheep to 10.52m sheep over three years when the joining rate declined from 91pc to 85pc for one year, to a 35pc reduction to 7.79 million sheep if the joining rate was reduced to 70pc for all three years modelled.

"Perhaps the most telling statement of all vindicates advocates of the industry when it states a large flock reduction will be hard for the industry to recover from.

"This modelling found that the longer and more severe the reduction in ewe joining rates, the more severe the impacts on the State flock.

"This is also likely to occur simultaneously with a period of high turn-off and high loss rates which will exacerbate the impacts on the flock and make it very difficult for the flock to recover.

"This will have long lasting ramifications on the sheep industry and will impact all segments of the industry as well as supporting industries and regional communities in the long term."

DPIRD said despite the pessimism, it was likely that after one to two years of reduced ewe joining rates and high levels of turn-off, producers may start looking to rebuild flocks," DPIRD said.

"Seasonal and market conditions may have improved, allowing producers to feel more confidence in the industry," it said.

"It is also likely that producers who intended to exit the industry would have done so by this time."

DPIRD said possible avenues to grow the flock included increasing joining rates and reducing turn-off by either keeping older ewes that would normally be sold, keeping more ewe lambs/hoggets and/or keeping more wethers.

"Regrowing flocks when conditions improve may be a slow process due to the loss of replacement ewes in the short term, and may also involve reduced income if producers need to reduce the number of animals turned off," it said.

"This is on top of the reduced turn-off they may experience whilst reducing joining rates due to a declining flock."

In the meantime producers have been fighting to keep the live sheep export trade, an invaluable tool that has provided producers with alternative market access and has been called a relief valve/outlet for excess stock in tough years when seasonal conditions are not ideal, like the current conditions WA producers are experiencing.

Just last week WA Agriculture minister Jackie Jarvis wrote to the federal government urging them to delay the northern hemisphere moratorium on Australian live sheep exports by 10 days.

Ms Jarvis said WA farmers were facing one of the worst dry seasons on record, which was impacting agricultural producers across all regions.

It comes after the newly appointed 2024 Dry Season Taskforce met for the first time and identified that WA sheep producers had excess stock in the system and needed a relief valve.

The Australian Livestock Exporters' Council said that while the announcement of financial support from the state government had bought a brief reprieve for WA farmers, the silence from Agriculture Mminister Murray Watt was deafening.

ALEC chief executive officer, Mark Harvey-Sutton, said it was disappointing that there was no response from Canberra to the calls of farmers from WA, particularly when it is the government's own proposal to ban live sheep that is undermining confidence.

"The Albanese Government can inject much needed confidence into the market immediately by withdrawing their proposed ban," Mr Harvey-Sutton said.

"We know that there's times of drought and oversupply and farmers plan for that.

"Let me be very clear - this is not the fault of farmers.

"Instead, it is the 'bloody mindedness' of a government interfering in legitimate market.

"All to pursue an activist driven agenda.

"The only government speaking up at the moment is the WA Government as they understand the importance of live sheep exports to their farmers, who provide them with food every day of the week."

"For the Commonwealth Government to remain silent in the face of a disaster they have caused is shameful and contemptuous to WA's crucial farmers.

"All Western Australians are rightly appalled by how their farmers livelihoods are being destroyed by Canberra."