Fewer live export consignments have left Australian ports this season, adding to the oversupply of sheep in WA markets.
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Industry sources have reported a surplus of about 300,000 sheep and - with the northern hemisphere moratorium looming in mid-June - vessels are not able to get back in time from other runs to move the backlog.
Western Australian Livestock Exporters' Association chairman John Cunnington said several factors came into play with the livestock vessel shortage, labelling it a perfect storm on top of a perfect storm.
Those factors included a lack of compliant livestock vessels that could service Australia, strong demand for larger ships in other parts of the world and uncertainty around the live sheep export trade's future.
In terms of compliance, Mr Cunnington said all vessels permanently equipped for the carriage of livestock were required to carry an Australian Certificate for the Carriage of Livestock (ACCL) issued by the Australian Marine Safety Authority (AMSA).
He said since 2019, a large number of vessels had found alternate markets due to reduced demand for livestock, with prices being so high.
In that time, their ACCL had expired or become invalid.
An ACCL becomes invalid if required surveys are not completed and certificates are not endorsed.
If it expires or becomes invalid for other reasons such as non-compliance it needs to be reapplied for and is considered as a "new livestock vessel".
When reapplying, the vessel must then comply with the Marine Order in force.
"If a vessel's ACCL is not renewed or up-to-date with the newest regulations their vessels need to be retro-fitted," Mr Cunnington said.
"In many cases they don't end up returning to Australia and this is what we have seen with Al Kuwait recently.
"Al Kuwait is one of the newest vessels on the water, but it's ACCL lapsed and it didn't meet the updated regulations.
"To meet the new regulations it was going to cost a significant amount of money.
"They may still retrofit their vessels accordingly, but that is why Al Kuwait is not servicing Australia at the moment."
Similarly to WA producers, exporters have faced uncertainty amid the Federal government's decision to phase-out live exports by sea.
With the trade's future in limbo, Mr Cunnington said they were unsure whether or not to invest in live export or supply chain infrastructure.
"Do they go out and build a new vessel?" he said.
"Do they invest all of this money to ensure vessels stay up to the same standard to continue servicing Australia?
"Or do they use them for a lesser trade?
"Firstly, there needs to be confidence to encourage long-term investment.
"Why would anyone invest tens of millions of dollars if there's no level of certainty that a trade is going to exist?"
In addition to this, a large percentage of the world's livestock carriers - including the Maysora and Anna Marra - were now operating from South America.
Despite mostly shipping large volumes of cattle, Mr Cunnington said those carriers would also usually carry sheep.
He said the Ocean Drover also had not been in Australia for several years now - or if it has, it has been sparingly - because trade has been established out of South America.
"That is where all of the larger vessels are heading at the moment because they need longer runs to make them economically viable," Mr Cunnington said.
"Separately, vessels that are up in the Mediterranean can't easily return to Australia because of tensions in the Red Sea.
"If they have been doing that South America to Middle East run, they are having to pull a vessel around the bottom of Africa at the Cape of Good Hope, which is an extremely expensive exercise."
In a letter last month, WA Agriculture and Food Minister Jackie Jarvis urged the Federal government to delay the northern hemisphere moratorium on Australian live sheep exports by 10 days.
It came after the newly appointed 2024 Dry Season Taskforce identified that WA sheep producers had excess stock in the system and needed a relief valve.
Mr Cunnington said a 10-day extension may allow for only one extra smaller shipment of about 20,000-head.
He said Ms Jarvis's request showed the importance of the trade in relieving large numbers of livestock when the sheep industry needed it.
However if it was approved it would also entice exporters to reposition a vessel back to Fremantle port, as it would provide an extra buffer window.
"The stoppage period starts on June 14, but exporters don't load the day before - they usually do a week in advance," Mr Cunnington said.
"That is so they have extra days up their sleeves if, for example, there are port delays or other issues arise.
"There is far too much risk for an exporter to take.
"If they did all of their costs, sold their shipment, purchased all the sheep and then a day before they loaded the department says 'you need to destock by 30 per cent' that would be an absolute disaster."
Mr Cunnington said industry needed to know now if the date was going to be extended, so it could plan accordingly.
He said plans were already being made with South East Asia - which was normally a short notice business - through to the end of June because there was that shortage of tonnage.
"Middle Eastern plans need to be well and truly in front of South East Asian plans.
"At the moment the Middle Eastern exporters are wondering if they take the risk in doing another shipment.
"Or if they just charter the vessel to South East Asia - a region they can always ship to and where there is still strong demand."
Mr Cunnington said exporters were empathetic about the WA sheep industry's current challenges and were trying to relieve as much pressure as possible.
However, they were also limited in what they could do.
