![Without rain in the next two weeks, GIWA estimates the seeding area could be cut back by several hundred thousand hectares this season. Without rain in the next two weeks, GIWA estimates the seeding area could be cut back by several hundred thousand hectares this season.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/33nFNZ38FxtadDLYqv8sNRP/4c0ee605-330b-45e2-a10b-fe73b7217fed.JPG/r0_0_1732_978_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Rain from storms last week and around Anzac Day have helped germinate some dry-sown crops in southern parts of the State.
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However, in its May 2024 Crop Report, the Grains Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA), there were a lot of areas that have missed out on rain, particularly in the central regions and strips of land in northern eastern areas.
It said the northern and central western regions also largely missed out.
"The rainfall that did occur was driven by thunderstorms rather than cold fronts and consequently was brilliant for some and simply a nuisance for others," GIWA said.
"Growers that did receive rainfall in the lighter end of the rain gauge and who have little subsoil moisture underneath, now face the risk of a "false break" unless there is follow up rain soon.
"Where there were heavier falls, particularly where the moisture was able to meet up with subsoil moisture, crops will be OK for the time being."
GIWA said the persistent warm conditions were a concern and, while still fairly early in the season and with plenty of time for rains to come, the current conditions have growers increasingly nervous about the upcoming grain growing season.
It said a warm winter could produce a record crop as was the case in 2022, although in that year there was good early moisture in the profile to start the season off, together with a long, soft finish.
"Soil moisture profiles are historically very dry this year and the light falls of rain are either being sucked up like a sponge or are evaporating before it soaks in," GIWA said.
"Most regions have planted more than 50 per cent of the intended area and are continuing to plant dry.
"Without rain in the next two weeks, the northern and eastern regions will pull back on intended plantings and drop paddocks out to fallow.
"This could reduce the planted area in the State by several hundred thousand hectares, and the estimated planted area in this report reflects that outcome.
"However, the planted area estimate could swing the other way by a similar margin if there are decent rains in the next two weeks."
Canola area is going to be down from 2023 as growers hold back sowing paddocks due to the dry conditions, and it is now close to being too late for these to go in.
The lupin area is unlikely to be up from 2023, also due to the dry conditions.
The oat area will be up from 2023 particularly in the lower rainfall regions where there was early rain.
The wheat and barley swap in areas could still vary, depending on what happens with rainfall in the next three weeks.
The most hectares are expected to be planted in the Kwinana zone, with GIWA estimating 4,390,000 hectares being seeded - the majority of that - 2,750,000ha to wheat, with 770,000ha to canola and 580,000ha to barley.
Up to 1,700,000ha is expected to be seeded in the Albany zone, with 550,000ha to barley, 510,000ha to wheat and 470,000ha to canola.
In Esperance, up to 540,000ha is expected to be seeded to wheat, with 340,000ha to canola and 250,000ha to barley, as part of an overall zone total estimate of 1,183,000ha.
The Geraldton zone is expected to have the lowest seeding coverage at 1,195,000ha.
The majority of this will be to wheat at 900,000ha, with 120,000ha to canola and 90,000ha to barley.