We have spoken a lot about the impact of Russia on global grain markets, including our predictions of what could be an effective Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries of wheat led by Russia in the event of their winning the war.
This year, they have struggled with low rainfall in many places, but there are also reports of frost impacting crops.
These weather events are leading to falls in wheat production.
Chart 1 shows the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts for Russian wheat production, which are at 88 million metric tonnes.
This is a fall from 91.5mmt last year.
It is important to note that this would still be the third-largest Russian wheat crop.
What are their stockpiles like?
Are they high or low?
The Rusgrain Union has estimated the wheat crop at 86.8mmt, and Sovecon has dropped production to 85.7mmt.
The wheat price in Russia has increased in recent weeks as concerns started becoming noted of their conditions.
This will be a good barometer of whether the crop is going well or badly.
This is what will drive our Australian prices, not the US, but what happens in Russia.
