BEING optimistic, wheat production in the war-affected Ukraine this year will be 50-60 per cent of what it normally averages.
Most of the land reserved for wheat production was seeded before winter, however of this land almost 20-30pc is in occupied areas or in formerly occupied areas.
In the occupied areas, Russia is deliberately obstructing farmers from working their land and by bombing machine storage areas.
In the liberated areas there are still thousands of landmines in and around the fields.
Sitting in a tractor cab in Australia, it's unfathomable to think what farmers in Ukraine are going through as they try to make a living.
That's what inspired David Fulwood, who farms at Cunderdin with his wife Jo, to get behind the Aussie Grain 4 Ukraine appeal.
Mr Fulwood had previously been to Ukraine on several occasions through his association with the Nuffield Scholarship program and has friends there who have been keeping him up-to-date with what the situation is like on the ground.
One of those friends is Kees Huizinga, a Dutch farmer living and working in Ukraine, who spoke directly to Farm Weekly and said access to the land was just the start of problems facing graingrowers and other farmers in the invaded country.
Organic farming is not the standard in Ukraine and it is impossible to make that switch within one season, so fertilisers and herbicides are vital for a healthy crop.
However, the logistics of getting these products to farms has been severely hampered by the war.
"There is only limited availability of fertiliser and even if you can get your hands on it for your farm, prices have already tripled," Mr Huizinga said.
"If we don't use enough fertiliser, yields and quality of the crop can easily drop by 10-20pc."
Farming is all about taking the right actions at the right time and every delay can have a severe impact on the yield.
Any hiccup in the delivery of fertiliser and crop protection products to the farms will have an impact on the amount of wheat that can be produced and if the war continues, there will for certain be a reduction in yields caused by logistics delays due to the war.
Looking towards harvest, Mr Huizinga said farmers were concerned the small window of opportunity of a few weeks in summer to get the crop off will be disrupted.
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"The wheat has to be ripe but not too ripe so that the grain for example spills on the ground, the weather needs to be dry enough so the crop isn't too moist," he said.
"The harvest therefore takes place from early morning till late at night, whenever the weather allows it.
"Another important issue is that even in times of peace, it is always a logistical challenge to make sure that all spare parts are at the farm in time, imagine in times of war."
These issues can easily cause a 10pc loss of potential yield.
However, even if there were to be no logistical problems, Russians have been bombing dairy farms, pig farms, food storage areas and distribution centres, as well as preventing the people in the occupied areas from working on their farms.
"This shows their tactics of deliberately targeting the food production in Ukraine," Mr Huizinga said.
"An additional issue will be that during harvest season when it is all hands on deck, many of the Ukrainian farm workers will be fighting on the frontlines."
Compounding all of those issues is the shortage of fuel and especially diesel.
The fuel supply to Ukraine has been severely affected by the disruption of the supply lines.
In normal years 60pc of the diesel used in Ukraine comes from Russia and Belarus, 25pc through the Black Sea ports and 15pc is locally produced.
"Import has stopped and the local production has been demolished by missile attacks," Mr Huizinga said.
"Fuel is already rationed because of an acute shortage.
"If there isn't enough diesel coming in, then agricultural machines will stand still, which means no harvest and no transport of harvested goods."
It's important to keep in mind these are just the logistical issues facing farmers in Ukraine.
For those in the heavily affected areas, mainly the south east of the country, their homes and lives are under threat every single day.
They are under the constant worry of whether they're farm and livelihood will still be there tomorrow.
About 10pc of Ukraine involves mega farms, the next 10pc are 20,000-50,000 hectares, after that 10pc are closer to typical Australian sized farms and the last 70pc are very small land holdings which operate on a village scale.
It's those small village farmers who are most at risk from being destroyed by the war.
If that village style operation is interrupted, people will go hungry as they are used to growing their own or receiving grain as rent, storing it over winter and feeding their animals with it.
They also grow a lot of vegetables over summer, pickle and store them and then live off that over the course of winter.
Those small villages which have been decimated or taken over, can't continue with their normal food production and it's those farmers which Mr Fulwood hopes to support through money raised as part of Aussie Grain4Ukraine.
"Their winters are brutal and people live off what they have grown during the summer and spring, so it really worries me they won't have what they need," Mr Fulwood said
"We don't want the money to go straight into the cities and disappear, so it's important to us it has an impact on the ground and we want to make sure those people from small villages have enough money to get through the winter.
"We've got a period from now until harvest starts to work out exactly what we're going to do with the money and how to use it best, then as the crop starts to come in we'll know how much we'll have to give."
In terms of making sure the funds end up in the right place, one option is to link up with a well-organised farm member organisation in Ukraine which has members across the country and therefore a very good handle on what's going on in each area.
Mr Huizinga said for him and other farmers, any assistance they could receive would be welcomed especially as getting the crop off and making it through the winter was only half their battle.
Even if they manage to fertilise, even if they are able to protect their crops from diseases and even if they can harvest in time, the question remains as to how they will export it.
Roughly 75pc of Ukraine's wheat is exported to countries which are dependent on it, such as Lebanon which relies on the invaded country for 90pc of its wheat imports.
In Ukraine 85pc of all wheat harvest is exported by ship via the ports on the Black Sea, of which about 60pc leaves Ukraine through the ports in the region of Odessa.
The rest leaves the country through ports which are now in occupied areas or places where there is still heavy fighting going on such as Kherson, Mykolaiv and Mariupol and at the latter the port has already been destroyed.
"The Odessa region is still under Ukrainian control and could with some additional effort increase the amount of wheat handled by its ports, but that doesn't help much if the Russians are controlling the Black Sea with their marine vessels," Mr Huizinga said
"Even if the Russians would allow a corridor for ships to leave Odessa, which is extremely unlikely, the next obstacle will be the safety of the ships departing.
"Which captain would like to navigate their ships past sea mines and Russian warships or which insurance company is comfortable providing cover for potential losses caused by a blown up ship?"
With all of these factors at play, Mr Fulwood said Ukrainian farmers were dealing with more than anyone in Australia could possibly comprehend.
"They may be direct competitors of ours but that's irrelevant - they need help, they're going to need help for a long time and the fact of the matter is Australia can't produce enough to feed everyone," he said.
That's where the Aussie Grain4Ukraine appeal comes in - when harvest rolls around, graingrowers can donate grain via a dedicated Grower Delivery Card, in the National Grower Register (NGR) system.
"It's a humanitarian approach - we're not interested in getting involved with the politics of the invasion, we just want to make sure people are okay from a welfare point of view," Mr Fulwood said.
"The grain price is higher at the moment in part because farmers in Ukraine are suffering, so we're asking our farmers to keep that in mind when they're delivering their grain this harvest."
WITH rain at the end of March and both the beginning and middle of April, canola on David (pictured above) and Jo Fulwood's farm at Cunderdin has received a close to perfect start.
The Fulwoods started seeding on April 4 after about 60 millimetres fell at the end of March and beginning of April.
A further 22mm on about April 11 meant any canola seeded either before or after was able to germinate beautifully.
The amount of canola planted did slightly increase this year to make up about a third of the Fulwood's program.
"There were some good incentives in terms of prices and early rain to plant more, but it also fits our rotation to do so," Mr Fulwood said.
"It has always been a good crop for us if we can establish it early and get good weed control, which we've been able to do this year."
Towards the end of last month, the Fulwoods moved onto barley, which suits the slightly earlier seeding window as it is a bit more tolerant to frost.
Come May, they moved onto wheat which makes up about 40 per cent of the program and will likely take them to the end of the month to complete, depending on weather conditions.
"We're always tweaking our plan depending on what the conditions are and that includes a lot of different factors," Mr Fulwood said.
"When it comes to commodity prices, we try not to chase anything too much as we know things can change dramatically between seeding and harvest."
For inputs, the Fulwoods were fortunate for this season as they had pre-purchased a lot as far back as the middle of last year.
If they do need above budget nitrogen this season then they will be exposed to the high prices, but it would be bearable as if they're applying more nitrogen late in the season, then that means the season is going well.
However, Mr Fulwood believes 2023 is where the real challenge will be.
"We haven't been able to buy fertiliser for 2023 and while we did try a few months ago, no one would offer us anything on a firm sale," he said.
"We're seeing a little bit of pressure on some of the herbicides and pesticides start to ease which is nice.
"However, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium are going to be the ones to watch, especially the latter as a lot of it comes out of eastern Europe."