PERFECTLY timed rainfall in the second half of July and more recently in early August, have improved the chances of another very good harvest in Western Australia.
According to the latest Grain Industry Association of WA Crop Report, released last Friday, there is a very large area of crop in the ground which is now mostly in pretty good shape, meaning at least 20 million tonnes could again be on the cards.
The previously dry areas of the State, particularly in the northern grainbelt, are on track for at least average grain yields and the areas that were less impacted from the dry July are looking at above average grain yields.
Yuna farmer Brett Warr said before the rain in July they were very dry and their crops were really struggling.
However, since then the crops have kicked on and now they're hoping to get away with an average season.
"We were looking at starting harvest in September, but now it's back to the standard second week of October and the longer it's greener, the better it is," Mr Warr said.
"It's hard to put a figure on it but we were going to be well below average.
"We still need finishing rainfall and the forecast looks pretty good which should get some of our crops to the end, but we'll still need a bit more after that."
Crop Report author Michael Lamond said all grain crops were further advanced in growth stage than normal due to the very warm winter, which has both an upside and a downside.
"The upside is a greater percentage of the crop will be filling grain prior to the inevitable heat in the spring, reducing the chance of heat shock," Mr Lamond said.
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"However the downside was the crop would be exposed to a greater period of frost risk, and this is a growers' greatest fear.
"The cereal crops will be vulnerable to frost from now onward in the central and northern regions as many are already running up."
At Bencubbin, grower Ben Sachse said they have had a few frosty mornings already, but generally they haven't been too bad so far.
"Some of our frosts in the past two weeks have gone below zero, including last Wednesday when it was -0.9 degrees according to our farm weather station in a valley," Mr Sachse said.
"However, it hasn't been that cold for long periods, probably only a couple of hours at most, and it's been nothing like the bad frost that we got last year where it was below zero for eight plus hours.
"At the moment, we reckon that the damage was minimal because of the time period."
In the southern areas, some paddocks have gone from very good to a bit wet, which was the only dampener on the change in weather patterns over the past three weeks.
At South Stirlings and Green Range, farmer John Howard copped more than 60 millimetres of rain in 10 days at the end of July and beginning of August.
However before that, the weather was actually on the drier side in May and June which is unusual for the area.
"There are now some waterlogged patches in the low lying areas and there are a few more fronts on the forecast which will make things a little wetter," Mr Howard said.
"But it's got absolutely nothing on the moisture of last year and we're only a few weeks away from it starting to warm up.
"We put some fungicides out last week as some of the diseases had gone bananas in the barley because of the rain, but we were able to get into the paddocks which is the main thing and the crops were looking pretty terrific."
Mr Lamond said many crops shed potential yield due to the below-average rainfall in June and early July and do not have the bulk of 2021.
"On top of that, fertiliser usage has come back a little this year due to the cost," he said.
"Coming off the back of very good grain yields in 2021 where nutrient reserves were exhausted and the season kicked on unexpectedly, crops are now looking underdone."
Ultimately that means the absolute top-end potential is not there, however the current GIWA estimate is still predicting a harvest of 19.6mt, which is slightly above last month's report.
The recent rainfall has brought with it an increase of leaf disease in cereals with powdery mildew in wheat and net blotches in barley, requiring extra spring fungicide applications in most areas.
Sclerotinia in canola and lupins is also requiring control.
Insects are now building in numbers in the north and central regions and are also requiring control.
The latest data also confirmed there is a huge area of canola in the ground, somewhere just shy of two million hectares, mostly at the expense of lupins and oats.
