GIWA crop record put tonnage estimates for the 2022/23 season at 23.1 million tonnes

The latest GIWA crop report, released last Friday, put tonnage estimates for the 2022/23 season at 23.1 million tonnes, which is less than 1mt shy of last year's 24mt effort.

Mild temperatures across the whole State and the absence of any significant frost events have combined to give crops every chance of achieving above average yields for all crops in all regions.

Most of the extra yield is expected to come from increased grain weight and early indications from harvested paddocks backs this up.

Wheat crops in the southern regions are not completely out of the frost risk period due to maturing a little later than normal, although with no major frost forecast, that is nearly over.

Crop report author Michael Lamond said there was upside to the current predicted wheat tonnage as the low rainfall areas were likely to yield better than they looked and if the southern areas remain frost free, they will also exceed current estimates.

"The wheat area is down on 2021 hectares planted due to substitution to canola particularly in the low rainfall regions where canola grain yields will be mostly in the 1-1.5 tonnes per hectare range, rather than 2t/ha plus for wheat," Mr Lamond said.

"This will tend to limit the upside in total tonnes for the State."

Canola tonnage has upside potential as well due to the very long grain-fill period setting more pods than normal, as well as expected very large seed size.

The lupin and oat area was down substantially from 2021, however the total tonnes of both are likely to be equivalent, or in the case of lupins, possibly more than last year.

Harvest has begun in some of the early sown canola paddocks in the region, with yields better than estimated.

Barley crops will not be far behind as many were sown early, the emerging trend in the northern areas.

Mr Lamond said this seems to be paying off with grain yields expected to be very good.

"The very early sown wheat struggled at the start of winter and never made up ground, whilst the wheat paddocks sown a bit later at more traditional planting times are sensational," he said.

"Lupins are very good and more tonnes will be produced off less planted area this year."

The incredible turn around in prospects for the region has been mentioned previously and now harvest has started, the few loads that have been delivered confirm this.

There has not been a lot of change in the last month, with cereals, lupins and canola continuing to look very good.

Grain production in the region is likely to be the "best ever", surpassing the benchmark years of 2016 and 2018.

"The recovery in the late emerging crops in the eastern areas of the zone has been substantial and growers have had to continue to increase insurance estimates, which is not a bad problem to have," Mr Lamond said.

"The canola area was up 15 to 20 per cent across the region, at the expense of oats destined for hay in the high and medium rainfall regions.

"The only hiccup in canola plantings this year has been significant lodging in the late-March to mid-April plantings, which is going to cause trouble at harvest."

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The higher rainfall regions of the zone have continued to improve from the dry start and now all crops have above-average grain yield potential.

Harvest is a few weeks off yet as canola and barley are just starting to turn following a few warm days.

"All crops have continued to benefit from the slow, mild finish and large grain size is expected to add significantly to grain weights and final yields," Mr Lamond said.

"The flurry of aerial activity in mid-September getting the last of leaf diseases under control is now over and the sky is noticeably quiet again."

On the downside, it was a bad year for leaf disease in wheat, barley and canola from the Midlands to all southern regions and ended up being a costly year to grow crops.

The lower rainfall regions of the Kwinana zone are very good with the dry areas from last year, north and east of Merredin, having the best crops for many years.

Growers in areas that were taken out by frost in 2021 are also looking forward to a good harvest coming up.

Mr Lamond said the crops generally do not have the same top end potential as last year, but the whole region had more subsoil moisture reserves coming into spring this year.

"So while the wheat is more compact than 2021, it looks to have close to the same grain yield potential," he said.

"The large area of canola is in good shape and the benefit from being able to insert a break crop into the rotation will provide benefits for several years to come."

The increased input cost pressures in the more variable rainfall environment of the region will almost certainly mean more country will go into fallow in 2023.

Harvest will probably not get underway until the first week in November and the region is again looking forward to a very good harvest.

Considering there is less waterlogged country than in 2021, it is likely that the Albany port zone will produce more grain than the record 5mt in 2021.

Mr Lamond said now that crops are finishing, the areas that were waterlogged are starting to show up.

"However, it tends to be in just the very susceptible areas, rather than the big holes in paddocks seen last year," he said.

"Powdery mildew is still causing trouble in wheat as it has right across the State, but the mice situation seems to have backed off with pod loss in canola dropping away to very low levels."

The dry September helped out with the waterlogging that crops were suffering in the shallow duplex soils north of the Stirling Ranges.

These crops have improved, particularly where there is any slope in the landscape.

Swathing has started in canola, which is earlier than normal due to the early plantings rather than the lack of potential yield.

Many canola crops were flowering for eight to 10 weeks and are expected to return very good yields.

"There was some frost damage picked up in barley crops from a frost near the end of September, where the minimums were just above zero followed by a very warm day and low humidity," Mr Lamond said.

"As a result of the conditions, the damage is not expected to impact on tonnages significantly."

Ryegrass is starting to poke through the barley and wheat crops, as it is in other areas.

The good run of seasons has resulted in a build-up of weeds that will require resetting back to low levels next year.

Growers are very aware of this and most are already planning to tackle it with lower cost knockdowns next year and may sacrifice time of sowing.

Mr Lamond said of note in the region, and across to the Esperance port zone, was the difficulty in controlling net form net blotch in Planet barley.

"Up to three applications of fungicides have been unsuccessful in halting the infection," he said.

"Whether this is due to initial fungicide applications being a little late and very good conditions for disease build up, or resistance, is unknown at this stage.

"It is likely there will be a general shift away from Planet next year to newer, more resistant varieties."

The total rainfall for August and September this year has been more than the combined amount for the same period in the past three years in the region.

This has pushed grain yield potential to very good levels and with the absence of any significant frost, the region is looking at one of its best harvests for a very long time.

The good soil moisture reserves coming into spring and the continued rainfall together with mild temperatures have pushed all crops to well above-average grain yield potential.

Mr Lamond said the cool conditions have slowed crop maturity and most growers in the region will have a late start to harvest.

"Cereal crops were looking a bit washed out from being underdone for nitrogen coming into spring, although as the soil remained moist and started to warm up, crops seemed to noticeably get a new lease of life from mineralised organic soil nitrogen," he said.

"This is incredible considering the nitrogen removal from the very high yielding crops in 2021 and highlights the value soil organic matter can play in keeping crops on track right to the end of the season if the conditions are favourable."

Large areas of oats have now been cut for hay, with yields likely to be very good.

Lupins have podded up well and will yield very well.

The region has not had the dream run of 2021, although the grain yield potential of all crops has improved in the past two months to now possibly be coming close to the record tonnage of last year.

However, the crops have turned noticeably quicker than many expected.

"Canola is expected to be lower yielding than in 2021, wheat as good as 2021 and barley better than 2021," Mr Lamond said.

"The mild finish has impacted on grain size in the region, with the barley looking ugly due to the ragged direction of the awns from oversized grains in the heads."

Leaf disease was a challenge in all crops in 2022, although most seemed to be under control in the finish.

However, growers in the zone regularly have issues with wheat, barley and canola leaf disease and tend to react quicker and apply fungicides earlier than regions further north in the State.