THE uplift in grain anticipated from sheep farmers moving solely into cropping due to Labor's policy to phase-out the live export trade is "part of the plan" for the CBH Group.
CBH chief executive Ben Macnamara told WAFarmers conference delegates recently it was too early to see a key change in the 22 million tonne crop average forecast by the group 12 months ago, but he said additional grain expected from sheep farmers moving hectares into cropping was a "critical piece" for the group.
"If there's a million hectares out there that are in livestock, there could be another 3mt that comes into the system - so it's part of our plan," Mr Macnamara said.
He said CBH's carry-over grain was expected to be within 5-7mt as of October 1.
"October demand looks strong at this point, so we think the carry will be in the fours by the time harvest gets underway, which will be a very pleasing number," he said.
"That assumes that everything is going well.
"I think some of the risks we see - issues we have at some of our ports with tug boat operators, for example, weather events can become challenging through the Avon Valley and we've had cyclones in the past, so this probably assumes everything is working as we expect and we are working on the existing run rate we've got."
While commending CBH on its dynamic pricing strategy, WAFarmers Grains Council president Mark Fowler asked Mr Macnamara what changes the group's marketing and trading arm were making to ensure they had adequate shipping capacity this year.
"Our strategic objective is to have 50 per cent of the shipping capacity that has been issued - that's how you end up with 50pc market share," Mr Macnamara said.
"We have been working our way through our long-term agreements to be able to issue that and those have a short window to go, so now we are working with each of the market participants on what a longer term agreement could look like.
"There's roughly 12 months to go on those."
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Mr Macnamara said the group would be doing "a lot more creative things" to get grain to port this year, reducing the amount of carry-over and minimising the overhang on the market.
"It may look different to what you've seen in the past, but I assure you we've done a lot of work on how we get more grain to port," he said.
