GIWA has delivered an optimistic forecast of 18 million tonnes this harvest after rainfall last month

WA has only exceeded this tonnage three times in history and will only achieve the predicted 18mt if the State receives more rainfall in the coming months.

It is predicted the Kwinana zone will produce about 8,070,000t, followed by Albany with 4,575,000t, Esperance with 3,175,000t and Geraldton with 2,319,000t.

According to the report, the northern and eastern fringes of the grainbelt are experiencing a very dry growing season and while other areas further west and south are still in good shape, rainfall in June has only been enough to sustain crop growth and there has been no topping up of the "bucket".

"Without substantial falls of rain in the back half of July and through to August, crops will fade quickly," the report said.

A few good rains at the start of June put the WA grain crop back on track for a good year in most areas, however GIWA believes the light falls for the rest of the month kept "crops ticking" rather than "powering ahead".

Elders technical services manager Bill Moore said June marked a major turnaround for many regions, after they received much needed rainfall.

"This has given growers the confidence to complete the sowing program for this season," Mr Moore said.

"It's pleasing to see a full profile of moisture in many areas of the State at this time of the year.

"It puts everyone into a positive frame of mind as we head into some longer days and ideal growing conditions."

Mr Moore said due to large amounts of rainfall, it has become quite "problematic" to get across many paddocks.

"Activities such as nitrogen top ups and early season pest control have been challenging," he said.

June was also very cold, which resulted in slow crop growth especially for crops that emerged later.

GIWA reported crops are growing at 1.5 leaves per week - a growth rate half that of the same period in 2022.

"This is where the risk of achieving the current tonnage predictions lies," the report said.

"These later crops will be subject to a greater period of heat stress in the spring (which is something most areas haven't experienced for several years) and without adequate reserves of sub-soil moisture, potential tonnage will sweat off very quickly."

Mr Moore said as well as slowing down the growth rates in crops, the cold has reduced the presence of many issues, such as insect pests and disease.

"Challenges for growers this year are varied, including slugs and snails which have survived over summer in some of the thick stubbles from last year," Mr Moore said.

"With slow growing crops these pests have caused issues in many areas."

He said control was not always easy as baiting has variable results.

"We are seeing a high presence of net blotch in barley this year," he said.

"It is concerning seeing it this early in the year as many varieties have a low natural resistance, therefore will rely on fungicides to control."

The northern and eastern fringes of the graingrowing region are still looking very dry, with reduced crop planted in 2023, the report said it was "unrealistic" to expect those areas that have missed rainfall-to-date to contribute large amounts to WA's total tonnage.

GIWA believes that while total grain production in WA could be in the higher range historically, it is unlikely to be anywhere close to the record-breaking totals from the past two years.

Wheat area is back up to about 55 per cent of the total crop area, replacing reduced plantings of both canola and lupins.

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Barley area has increased slightly in the traditional barley belt in central regions, although it continues to lose ground to wheat in the south.

The lupin area planted is the lowest for more than 30 years and while the oat area planted is only down slightly from 2022, most will be destined for grain rather than hay.

Pulse crop area has declined slightly from 2022 and nothing on the horizon suggests this will change too much.

"The majority of the decrease in crop area has gone to fallow in the low rainfall areas of the State, as well as a slight increase in pasture area from growers carrying over more stock than normal heading into the winter," the report said.

Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) research officer Ian Foster said seasonal rainfall outlooks continue to indicate that drier than normal conditions are more likely in coming months.

Mr Foster said this meant a risk to spring conditions for crops that were under water stress and those where development has been slow to date.

Although June was wet for parts of the lower west coast and south coast, it was below normal for the northern agricultural area.

July rain-to-date has been greatest in coastal areas and south-coast, while some inland parts have had less than 10 millimetres of rain so far.

"Rain has come from cold fronts that have not pushed significant rain inland," Mr Foster said.

He said climate models continue to indicate below normal rain is "more likely" over the coming months for most of Australia.

"Atmospheric pressure is likely to remain above normal south of Australia, which is associated with lower rainfall over southern WA," Mr Foster said.

United States authorities have announced an El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean, however the Bureau of Meteorology has not made a similar call - as mixed atmospheric patterns in the Pacific show the event has "not fully coupled with the atmosphere".

"Neutral conditions remain in the tropical Indian Ocean, despite model predictions of an Indian Ocean Dipole event," Mr Foster said.

"Their combined impact historically suppresses rainfall over much of Australia in winter and spring."

Geraldton zone

Across the Geraldton zone, about 50pc of crop is estimated by GIWA to be good, while 25pc is struggling and 25pc is very poor.

The northern and eastern fringes of the Geraldton port zone were well down on rainfall in May and the situation has not improved during June.

"The best these growers can hope for is gaining enough cover to stabilise the country for the summer on the sandplain in the north and a bit more rain to improve things on the heavy country in the east," the report said.

In contrast, the west coastal strip is looking as good as last year, while the country in between the good and the bad has been "swinging" from stressed to recovery with each rainfall event - and will need a decent rain at some stage to get crops through the spring.

Heat will be the region's enemy, as crop growth stages are behind where most would like them to be at this time of the year.

Kwinana zone

Most of the Kwinana North Midlands had a very good June rainfall, and grain yield potential is still good for most crops - however the later development from cold dry winds will limit the top end grain yield potential.

"There has been very little leaching rain which has resulted in beautiful crop growth on the lighter soils closer to the coast, where crops often struggle to pick up all the nitrogen that is applied," the GIWA report said.

Little waterlogging and leaching has resulted in "exceptional" nitrogen use efficiency.

However, in the heavier country in the zone, crops are struggling.

Crop grain yield potential falls away dramatically in the northern and eastern fringes of Kwinana North's eastern region.

"These areas have missed out on rain all year and will struggle to achieve anywhere near average grain yields as they are quickly running out of growing season," the report said.

There is a lot more fallow in the region than the past few years, with growers electing to leave paddocks out rather than take the risk of 2023 being another good year.

This appears to have been a good move at this stage of the season.

This area of fallow in the low rainfall fringes stretches north and south east of WA and has contributed to a several-hundred-thousand-hectare reduction in crop area compared to 2021 and 2022.

Moving south away from the region's north and eastern fringes, the crops are in very good shape and the region could still produce reasonable tonnage unless the rain cuts out completely in the spring.

In the south, early sown crops are bulking up nicely and later sown crops are starting to fill in the bare areas over the past week.

"While crops are in excellent shape once you move away from the western portions of the region, the soil profile is not 'wet' and at some stage crops are going to need a decent soaking rain to realise the current high potential," the report said.

Albany zone

Western parts of the Albany zone have mild concerns that crops have come up too early - with canola flowering and barley starting to run up.

GIWA said the early crown crops, which got away before the cold set in, are in "very good shape" - while the later sown crops (mainly wheat) still have a long way to go.

They are not expected to reach the grain yield heights of 2022.

Rainfall in the western portions of the zone is close to recent averages for this time of the year, although the year-to-date (YTD) rainfall in the eastern half is lower than normal, which is also contributing to the "average" outlook.

The coastal areas are extremely wet, and in some cases non-trafficable.

"Small areas were left out due to becoming too wet and the very wet areas have suffered from delayed emergence associated with herbicide waterlogging interaction," the report said.

The contrast is stark between crops that emerged before the dry spell in May and those that came up at the end of May and were then hit by the very cold conditions in June.

A large majority of crops in Albany East emerged in late May, but were hit with a very cold June.

There were multiple frost events in June with about five days having minimums below two degrees.

These cold temperatures have made crop protection and weed control treatments difficult.

The "blotch" diseases in barley have been a real concern again this year as they were last year, which in part drove the shift to more wheat plantings in the region this year.

Esperance zone

The Esperance zone is a "mixed bag" - ranging from very wet with crops suffering from waterlogging stress to country lacking decent reserves of sub-soil moisture.

"The zone could be split into four distinct areas based on rainfall and crop growth," the report said.

The coast is hoping for a period of dry weather to recover grain yield potential, having received more than 200mm for June.

Further north, west-to-east from Cascades and Scaddan to Beaumont, the crops are very good and have above average grain yield potential at this stage of the season.

North west of the highway, the crops are OK although very slow and well behind where growers would like and the country lacks any decent reserves of sub-soil moisture.

East of the highway, crops are much better and have above average grain yield potential.

Delayed growth for all areas of the Esperance zone is a real concern, with heat shock more of a risk than frost.